Back in July, our sister site RealtyHop took a look at the fundraising numbers filed by the presidential candidates for the second quarter. We then stated, by looking at the numbers (and numbers don’t lie), that based on the fundraising numbers only five of the Democratic presidential candidates truly had a shot. As the campaign finance data for the third quarter has now been released, we can take another close look to see if the trend has changed.
The previous study analyzed individual donations in the 30 most populous U.S. cities. This time around we took a deeper look at the individual donations on a city and zip code level for major metros in Texas, including Austin, Dallas, and Houston. We chose specifically to rank zip codes by unique donor counts instead of dollar amounts, as we feel this better represents how many people support each candidate.
Our key findings this quarter include:
- Beto secured home support, with 1,109 unique donors in Austin, 778 in Dallas, and 943 in Houston, making him the front-runner among all Democratic candidates.
- The political scene is more divided at a metro level. The gap between Trump and Beto widened in both Greater Dallas and Greater Houston. In Greater Austin, Trump surpassed Beto by 14% with a total of 1,712 unique donors as of September 30th.
- The majority (84%) of donors in Austin support Democratic candidates. [Austin Fundraising Map]
- Most of the blue zip codes in Greater Dallas are in the city. The farther away from the city center, the more divided the voters’ views. [Dallas Fundraising Map]
- Democratic candidates, including Beto, Buttigieg, and Sanders, lead the race in terms of unique donor count within the 610 Loop in Houston. The republican strengths are more prominent in the Outer Loop and the suburbs. [Houston Fundraising Map]
- In the City of Houston, Trump amassed 1,828 unique donors as of Q3 2019. Beto comes in second, receiving support from 943 unique donors. Sanders, who gained momentum in other major cities, only saw 390 unique donors.
- 78703 (Austin): 104 unique donors, or 28%
- 78746 (Austin): 102 unique donors, or 28%
- 78704 (Austin): 97 unique donors, or 30%
- 78731 (Austin): 80 unique donors, or 31%
- 78759 (Austin): 55 unique donors, or 32%
- 78758 (Austin): 41 unique donors, or 38%
- 78748 (Austin): 28 unique donors, or 27%
- 78741 (Austin): 24 unique donors, or 30%
- 78727 (Austin): 18 unique donors, or 24%
- 78753 (Austin): 13 unique donors, or 30%
- 78633 (Georgetown): 100 unique donors, or 68%
- 78130 (New Braunfels): 75 unique donors, or 64%
- 78734 (Austin): 61 unique donors, or 48%
- 78738 (Austin): 58 unique donors, or 51%
- 78132 (New Braunfels): 57 unique donors, or 62%
- 75214 (Dallas): 68 unique donors, or 38%
- 75209 (Dallas): 53 unique donors, or 31%
- 75206 (Dallas): 37 unique donors, or 28%
- 75201 (Dallas): 35 unique donors, or 24%
- 75218 (Dallas): 32 unique donors, or 32%
- 75093 (Dallas): 106 unique donors, or 61%
- 75225 (Dallas): 88 unique donors, or 43%
- 76092 (Grapevine): 70 unique donors, or 53%
- 76034 (Colleyville): 67 unique donors, or 61%
- 75230 (Dallas): 66 unique donors, or 31%
- 75093 (Dallas): 8 unique donors, or 30%
- 75225 (Dallas): 8 unique donors, or 29%
- 76092 (Denton): 7 unique donors, or 32% (tie with Beto)
- 76034 (Dallas): 4 unique donors, or 44%
- 75230 (Dallas): 4 unique donors, or 25%
- Dallas – 30% Republicans, 70% Democrats. Trump leads with 959 unique donors, followed by Beto with 778 unique donors.
- Arlington – 60% Republicans, 40% Democrats. Trump leads with 244 unique donors, followed by Beto with 59 unique donors.
- Fort Worth – 52% Republicans, 48% Democrats. Trump leads with 550 unique donors, followed by Beto with 199 unique donors.
- Garland – 62% Republicans, 38% Democrats. Trump leads with 103 unique donors, followed by Sanders with 22 unique donors.
- Grand Prairie – 54% Republicans, 46% Democrats. Trump leads with 58 unique donors, followed by Beto with 18 unique donors.
- 77005 (Houston): 86 unique donors, or 29%
- 77008 (Houston): 68 unique donors, or 33%
- 77019 (Houston): 66 unique donors, or 23%
- 77007 (Houston): 50 unique donors, or 24%
- 77006 (Houston): 48 unique donors, or 21%
- 77024 (Houston): 134 unique donors, or 44%
- 77379 (Spring): 106 unique donors, or 68%
- 77429 (Cypress): 102 unique donors, or 74%
- 77494 (Katy): 97 unique donors, or 59%
- 77573 (League City): 94 unique donors, or 67%
The Bat City is with Beto
The interactive map and graph below show the share of unique donors each of the top 10 candidates has in zip codes across the Austin metro area. More detailed, the map shows where each zip code stands, politically, and which presidential candidate is the front-runner in each zip code. In terms of the color shades, purple areas are areas where neither the 19 Democratic candidates combined nor the Republicans (mostly Trump) have more than 55% of the donors. Light blue and light red represent zip codes where the party has 55% to 70% of the donors, and blue or red represents a majority of 70% and more.
From the interactive map above, we see that the majority (84%) of donors in Austin support Democratic candidates. Specifically, Beto O’Rourke, the former Congressman of Texas, gained 1,109 unique donors from January to September 30th, followed by Trump, who attracted 661 unique donors. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, received support from just a bit over 600 unique donors, 46% fewer than what Beto had. The story, however, changes once we expand the scope to the Greater Austin area. While the Democrats still have their base (72%) here, Trump leads the game with a total of 1,712 unique donors while Beto follows closely behind with 1,502 donors. Sanders, meanwhile, attracted 792 unique donors as of Q3 2019. Other candidates, including Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts and Mayor Pete Buttigieg, don’t seem to have much a shot in Greater Austin.
When looking at zip codes in the Greater Austin area, Trump is the sole leader in 61 zip codes in terms of unique donor count. The current POTUS received the most support from zip code 78633, with a total of 100 unique donors in that zip code. Meanwhile, Beto leads in 26 zip codes, including 78703 and 78746, both are in the City of Austin.
Beto is Unequaled in the Race in these Zip Codes
Sanders is Ahead in these Zip Codes
Trump Leads in these Zip Codes
Trump had 2.5x more unique donors in Greater Dallas than Beto
The interactive map and graph below show the share of unique donors each of the top 10 candidates has in zip codes across the Austin metro area. More detailed, the map shows where each zip code stands, politically, and which presidential candidate is the front-runner in each zip code. In terms of the color shades, purple areas are areas where neither the 19 Democratic candidates combined nor the Republicans (mostly Trump) have more than 55% of the donors. Light blue and light red represent zip codes where the party has 55% to 70% of the donors, and blue or red represents a majority of 70% and more.
We can see by the colors that the majority (70%) of donors in the City of Dallas support Democratic candidates, even though Trump alone had close to 1,000 unique donors in the city. The ranking, however, will likely change down the line with more candidates dropping out of the run and voters regrouping their support. The Democrats, collectively, received 131% more support than Trump as of Q3 2019. Beto O’Rourke, the former Congressman of Texas, captured 778 unique donors from January to September 30th, followed by Mayor Pete, who amassed just 270 unique donors, or 34% of what Beto had.
The story, however, is quite different once we expand the scope to the Greater Dallas area. When including other cities and rural areas, Trump leads the game with 4,828 unique donors, 2.5 times more than what Beto accumulated. No one from the Democratic party seems to have a better shot than Beto in the Greater Dallas area.
When looking at zip codes, Trump is the sole leader in 232 zip codes in terms of unique donor count. The current POTUS received the most support from zip code 75093, with a total of 106 unique donors in that zip code. Meanwhile, Beto leads in 22 zip codes, including 75214 and 75209, both are in the City of Dallas. Sanders, who has been gaining momentum in other cities such as New York, leads only in eight zip codes, of which seven are in Dallas City.
Beto is Unequaled in the Race in these Zip Codes
Trump Leads in these Zip Codes
Sanders is Ahead in these Zip Codes
Unique Donor Share by City
Interested in only city-level data? Here’s a summary of our analysis by major cities in the Greater Dallas Area.
Trump had 2x more unique donors than Beto in the Space City
The interactive map and graph below show the share of unique donors each of the top 10 candidates has in zip codes across the Houston metro area. More detailed, the map shows where each zip code stands, politically, and which presidential candidate is the front-runner in each zip code. In terms of the color shades, purple areas are areas where neither the 19 Democratic candidates combined nor the Republicans (mostly Trump) have more than 55% of the donors. Light blue and light red represent zip codes where the party has 55% to 70% of the donors, and blue or red represents a majority of 70% and more.
We can see by the colors that most of the voters in the Inner Loop zip codes supported Democratic candidates. The political scene starts shifting towards the other side as we move away from the city center. Overall, we found over 4,800 donors in the City of Houston, and around 62% have shown their support for Democratic candidates. Trump alone, on the other hand, amassed over 1,800, or 38%, unique donors, making him the front-runner in the H Town. Meanwhile, Beto managed to attract 943 unique donors, more than twice what Sanders, who is currently in third place, captured from January to September 30th.
The gap, however, is more drastic once we expand the scope to the Greater Houston area. As one can see from the interactive line chart above, Trump is the sole winner in the Greater Houston Area. While the donor share between Republicans and Democrats is around 50/50, as of Q3, 2019, Trump received donations from 4,747 unique donors, more than triple of what Beto, the Democratic front-runner, received. Despite being the front-runner in the polls, Elizabeth Warren, Senator from Massachusetts, and former Vice President Joe Biden struggled with fundraising in Greater Houston, with only 426 and 389 unique donors respectively as of September 30th.
When looking at zip codes, Trump is the sole leader in 201 zip codes in terms of unique donor count. He received the most support from zip code 77024, with a total of 134 unique donors in the neighborhood. Meanwhile, Beto leads in 15 zip codes, including 77005, 77008, and 77019, all located inside 601 Loop.
Beto is Unequaled in the Race in these Zip Codes
Trump is Ahead in these Zip Codes
Methodology
The campaign donations data was retrieved from the FEC, and the metro shapefiles and zip code shapefiles were retrieved from the Census website. To calculate unique donors, we combed through over 80,000 recorded campaign donations, looking at donor names, committees, receipt dates, and 5-digit zip codes. We then grouped donations from the same name and zip code together and analyzed the data by zip code and candidate. In Texas, we found close to 37,000 unique donors as of Q3 2019.
