With less than 100 days until Election Day, former Vice President Joe Biden and his campaign actively look for ways to mobilize voters and garner support across the nation. Meanwhile, President Trump, while grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, the BLM movement, and the disappointing economic indicators, has been able to continue to receive campaign donations from individuals in different cities.
Each quarter we at RentHop review the fundraising data released by the FEC with the hope of providing insights to voters. Our study for Q4 2019 for key cities such as Des Moines and Las Vegas shows that a city’s contributions might align with the outcome of the caucuses and primaries, and we believe that it would also shed light on the general election.
Our key findings in NYC this quarter include:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden leads New York City with a total of 12,945 unique donors as of June 30, 2020, more than doubled from Q1 2020.
- Meanwhile, President Trump has amassed 5,788 unique donors at the end of Q2 2020, 55% fewer than Biden.
- Trump, however, did manage to take over a few zip codes in outer boroughs, including 10309 and 10310 in Staten Island, 11001 and 11428 in Queens, as well as 11214 and 11235 in Brooklyn.
- Of the 217 zip codes included in this study, 83.9%, or 182, are blue zip codes. 14 of them, or 6.5% are red, and 21, or 9.7%, are purple, which means neither parties have more than 55% of the donors.
- 6 zip codes became “bluer”, including 10473 (Bronx), 10170 (Manhattan), and 11436 (Queens). This means that the Democratic support is growing in these zip codes.
- Meanwhile, several zip codes are “redder”, including 11419 (Queens), 11214 (Brooklyn), and 10309 (Staten Island).
- The flat trend in Brooklyn indicates that it might be challenging for Biden to attract voters in Brooklyn, who historically had responded well to Senator Bernie Sanders’ grassroots campaign.
Which Candidate Does Your Neighbor Support?
The interactive map below highlights New York City and its zip codes. More detailed, the map shows where each zip code stands, politically, and which presidential candidate is leading in each zip code. You can click on the zip code polygons or select from the drop-down menu to learn more. For a more detailed analysis of how candidates are doing in the same zip code, view the corresponding interactive line graph above the map.
Blue zip codes are zip codes where the aggregated number of unique donors of all Democratic candidates (including past candidates) is higher than the number of unique donors received by Republican candidates (including Trump, Sanford, Walsh, and Weld), and red zip codes are areas where the Republican candidates attracted more unique donors than all Democratic candidates combined.
Looking at the map and the chart above, we can tell that the majority of NYC zip codes have contributed to Democratic candidates. Vice President Joe Biden started seeing a surge in the number of unique donors by the end of February, thanks to his Super Tuesday Success. As he became the presumptive Democratic candidate, the amount of support he received from New Yorkers continued to grow exponentially. As of June 30, 2020, Trump has accumulated 12,945 unique donors.
Meanwhile, while the growth has been relatively flat for President Trump, he did manage to take over a few zip codes, mostly in outer boroughs. Staten Island continued to be Trump’s strong base, and zip codes 11214 and 11229 in Brooklyn went from light blue to purple. This, along with the aggregated totals in Brooklyn, indicate that Biden might have trouble attracting voters in Brooklyn, especially those who have responded well to Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign.
While most of Manhattan is dominated by Democratic donors, Trump did manage to raise more than Biden in certain zip codes such as zip codes 10019, 10022, and 10065. For instance, President Trump received in total five contributions with receipt amount equal or over $100,000 in zip code 10019 through the Trump Victory committee, with the largest one being $360,600 from the CEO of a private commercial real estate finance and investment company. Note that, however, in our unique donor analysis, multiple contributions from the same donor to the same candidate (even though different committees) are counted as one.
Top 5 Zip Codes in Manhattan by Donor Count
- Zip Code 10024: Biden’s 830 unique donors vs. Trump’s 71 unique donors
- Zip Code 10025: Biden’s 678 unique donors vs. Trump’s 54 unique donors
- Zip Code 10023: Biden’s 819 unique donors vs. Trump’s 93 unique donors
- Zip Code 10011: Biden’s 512 unique donors vs. Trump’s 41 unique donors
- Zip Code 10003: Biden’s 440 unique donors vs. Trump’s 38 unique donors
Top 5 Zip Codes in Brooklyn by Donor Count
- Zip Code 11201: Biden’s 470 unique donors vs. Trump’s 40 unique donors
- Zip Code 11215: Biden’s 396 unique donors vs. Trump’s 30 unique donors
- Zip Code 11238: Biden’s 161 unique donors vs. Trump’s 8 unique donors
- Zip Code 11217: Biden’s 214 unique donors vs. Trump’s 13 unique donors
- Zip Code 11231: Biden’s 145 unique donors vs. Trump’s 12 unique donors
Top 5 Zip Codes in Queens by Donor Count
- Zip Code 11375: Biden’s 99 unique donors vs. Trump’s 105 unique donors
- Zip Code 11385: Biden’s 10 unique donors vs. Trump’s 68 unique donors
- Zip Code 11101: Biden’s 55 unique donors vs. Trump’s 24 unique donors
- Zip Code 11372: Biden’s 39 unique donors vs. Trump’s 39 unique donors
- Zip Code 11106: Biden’s 23 unique donors vs. Trump’s 33 unique donors
Top 5 Zip Codes in the Bronx by Donor Count
- Zip Code 10471: Biden’s 73 unique donors vs. Trump’s 34 unique donors
- Zip Code 10462: Biden’s 19 unique donors vs. Trump’s 25 unique donors
- Zip Code 10465: Biden’s 9 unique donors vs. Trump’s 61 unique donors
- Zip Code 10461: Biden’s 11 unique donors vs. Trump’s 34 unique donors
- Zip Code 10467: Biden’s 13 unique donors vs. Trump’s 18 unique donors
Top 5 Zip Codes in Staten Island by Donor Count
- Zip Code 10314: Biden’s 26 unique donors vs. Trump’s 145 unique donors
- Zip Code 10312: Biden’s 25 unique donors vs. Trump’s 126 unique donors
- Zip Code 10301: Biden’s 34 unique donors vs. Trump’s 48 unique donors
- Zip Code 10306: Biden’s 15 unique donors vs.
- Zip Code 10304: Biden’s 21 unique donors vs. Trump’s 65 unique donors
Unique Donor Leaderboard – Biden
Below are the top 10 zip codes where Biden received the most support.
- Zip Code 10024 (Manhattan): 830 unique donors, 92.1% donor share
- Zip Code 10023 (Manhattan): 819 unique donors, 89.8% donor share
- Zip Code 10025 (Manhattan): 678 unique donors, 92.6% donor share
- Zip Code 10128 (Manhattan): 596 unique donors, 84.9% donor share
- Zip Code 10021 (Manhattan): 569 unique donors, 84.9% donor share
- Zip Code 10028 (Manhattan): 527 unique donors, 82.7% donor share
- Zip Code 10011 (Manhattan): 512 unique donors, 92.6% donor share
- Zip Code 11201 (Brooklyn): 470 unique donors, 92.2% donor share
- Zip Code 10003 (Manhattan): 440 unique donors, 92.1% donor share
- Zip Code 10022 (Manhattan): 419 unique donors, 74.4% donor share
Unique Donor Leaderboard – Trump
Below are the top 10 zip codes where Trump received the most support.
- Zip Code 10314 (Staten Island): 145 unique donors, 84.8% donor share
- Zip Code 10022 (Manhattan): 144 unique donors, 25.6% donor share
- Zip Code 11209 (Brooklyn): 140 unique donors, 71.1% donor share
- Zip Code 11235 (Brooklyn): 132 unique donors, 86.3% donor share
- Zip Code 10312 (Staten Island): 126 unique donors, 83.4% donor share
- Zip Code 10028 (Manhattan): 110 unique donors, 17.3% donor share
- Zip Code 10128 (Manhattan): 106 unique donors, 15.1% donor share
- Zip Code 11375 (Queens): 105 unique donors, 51.5% donor share
- Zip Code 10019 (Manhattan): 102 unique donors, 25.4% donor share
- Zip Code 10021 (Manhattan): 101 unique donors, 15.1% donor share
Methodology
The campaign donations data was retrieved from the FEC covering all individual contributions dated between Jan 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020. For President Donald Trump, the following committees are included: Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. (C00580100), Trump Make America Great Again Committee (C00618371), and Trump Victory (C00618389). For former Vice President Joe Biden, the following committees are included: Biden for President (C00703975), Biden Victory Fund (C00744946), and Biden Action Fund (C00746651). The state, county, and zip code shapefiles were retrieved from the U.S. Census Bureau. In terms of unique donors, we deduped by names, zip codes, and candidates. We adopted 5-digit zip codes for this report as not all candidates collect 9-digit zip codes. People who have changed their names or moved in between donations could artificially inflate these numbers. Unique donor shares are calculated using the aggregated number of unique donors contributed to Trump’s campaign and the aggregated number of unique donors contributed to Biden’s campaign. Past Democratic/Republican candidates are excluded from the calculation.
Frequently Asked Questions about Our Election Studies
1. Why would Trump be leading in a Blue Zip Code?
This is related to the primaries. As we all know, there were as many as 31 Democratic candidates competing for the nomination, and so the support was divided among them. Meanwhile, while the Republican Party had 3 candidates running, all the support gravitated towards Trump, and therefore he alone could receive support from more unique donors than any single Democratic candidate. Now that Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee, we should start seeing some changes.
2. Why should we care about unique donors?
While the dollar amount raised is important for candidates, we believe that it is more crucial to understand how many unique donors each candidate has attracted, as each unique donor potentially means one vote, and by measuring donor counts, it gives us a better idea of how many people support each candidate.
3. How is the party majority calculated?
The party majority is calculated using the aggregated unique donor count of a party and the aggregated unique donor count from Jan 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020. For instance, if Democratic candidates attracted a total of 200 unique donors, and the total number of unique donors within a city is 500, the Democratic share would be 40%. In terms of the color shades, purple areas are whether neither the Democratic candidates combined nor Trump has more than 55% of the donors. Light blue and light red represent zip codes where the party has 55% to 70% of the donors, and blue or red represents a majority of 70% and more.
