With less than 100 days until Election Day, multiple polls show that President Donald Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in key swing states, including Wisconsin. Another way to figure out if a candidate is performing, in addition to polling data, is by looking at his/her fundraising effort.
Each quarter we at RentHop review the fundraising data released by the FEC with the hope of providing insights to voters. Our study for Q4 2019 for key cities such as Des Moines and Las Vegas shows that a city’s contributions might align with the outcome of the caucuses and primaries, and we believe that it would also shed light on the general election.
Our key findings this quarter in Wisconsin include:
- Trump leads in Wisconsin by unique donor count – the President has garnered support from 5,947 unique donors, whereas former Vice President Joe Biden has received donations from 2,393 unique donors as of June 30, 2020.
- Of all 680 zip codes included in this study, 36.0% of them, or 245, are blue zip codes, including 53711 (Dane County), 53211 (Milwaukee County), 54601 (La Crosse County). [Unique Donor Map]
- Meanwhile, 45.1%, or 307, are red zip codes, which consist of 54066 (Washington County), 53217 (Milwaukee County), and 53072 (Waukesha County). 18.8% of the zip codes, or 128, are purple, which means that neither parties have more than 55% of unique donors.
- In Milwaukee County, Biden saw a big surge in the number of unique donors since February 2020. The number went from 99 to 473 by the end of June.
- In Dane County, Biden surpassed Trump by end of March 2020, and has attracted 448 unique donors as of June 30, 2020, 106% more than what Trump has.
Which Candidate Does Your Neighbor Support?
The interactive map below highlights Wisconsin and its zip codes. More detailed, the map shows where each zip code stands, politically, and which presidential candidate is leading in each zip code. You can click on the zip code polygons or select from the drop-down menu to learn more. For a more detailed analysis of how candidates are doing in the same zip code, view the corresponding interactive line graph above the map.
Blue zip codes are zip codes where the aggregated number of unique donors of all Democratic candidates (including past candidates) is higher than the number of unique donors received by Republican candidates (including Trump, Sanford, Walsh, and Weld), and red zip codes are areas where the Republican candidates attracted more unique donors than all Democratic candidates combined.
Looking at the map and the chart above, we can tell that President Donald Trump has been the fundraising front runner in Wisconsin. As of June 30, 2020, Trump has accumulated 5,947 unique donors. On the Democratic side, while support was split among candidates, more donors have turned to Mr. Biden’s campaign as he seized primary victories in other states and positioned himself as the presumptive party nominee. As of Q2, 2020, the Biden campaign amassed 2,393 unique donors in Wisconsin.
In Milwaukee, the largest county in the state by population, Vice President Joe Biden saw a big surge in the number of unique donors since February 2020. The number went from 99 to 473 by the end of June. In Dane County, Biden surpassed Trump by end of March 2020, and has attracted 448 unique donors as of June 30, 2020, 106% more than what Trump has. Meanwhile, Trump comfortably leads the fundraising game in counties such as Waukesha, Brown, and Racine.
Top 5 Zip Codes in Milwaukee County by Donor Count
- Zip Code 53211: Biden’s 81 unique donors vs. Trump’s 25 unique donors
- Zip Code 53217: Biden’s 89 unique donors vs. Trump’s 72 unique donors
- Zip Code 53202: Biden’s 58 unique donors vs. Trump’s 27 unique donors
- Zip Code 53207: Biden’s 12 unique donors vs. Trump’s 22 unique donors
- Zip Code 53092: Biden’s 31 unique donors vs. Trump’s 69 unique donors
Top 5 Zip Codes in Dane County by Donor Count
- Zip Code 53711: Biden’s 117 unique donors vs. Trump’s 37 unique donors
- Zip Code 53705: Biden’s 136 unique donors vs. Trump’s 14 unique donors
- Zip Code 53703: Biden’s 55 unique donors vs. Trump’s 8 unique donors
- Zip Code 53704: Biden’s 54 unique donors vs. Trump’s 29 unique donors
- Zip Code 53562: Biden’s 61 unique donors vs. Trump’s 46 unique donors
Top 5 Zip Codes in Waukesha County by Donor Count
- Zip Code 53045: Biden’s 14 unique donors vs. Trump’s 68 unique donors
- Zip Code 53072: Biden’s 15 unique donors vs. Trump’s 70 unique donors
- Zip Code 53188: Biden’s 17 unique donors vs. Trump’s 49 unique donors
- Zip Code 53186: Biden’s 16 unique donors vs. Trump’s 41 unique donors
- Zip Code 53189: Biden’s 8 unique donors vs. Trump’s 40 unique donors
Unique Donor Leaderboard – Biden
Below are the top 10 zip codes where Biden received the most support.
- Zip Code 53705 (Dane County): 136 unique donors, 90.7 % donor share
- Zip Code 53711 (Dane County): 117 unique donors, 76 % donor share
- Zip Code 53217 (Milwaukee County): 89 unique donors, 55.3 % donor share
- Zip Code 53211 (Milwaukee County): 81 unique donors, 76.4 % donor share
- Zip Code 53562 (Dane County): 61 unique donors, 57 % donor share
- Zip Code 53202 (Milwaukee County): 58 unique donors, 68.2 % donor share
- Zip Code 53703 (Dane County): 55 unique donors, 87.3 % donor share
- Zip Code 53704 (Dane County): 54 unique donors, 65.1 % donor share
- Zip Code 53717 (Dane County): 45 unique donors, 73.8 % donor share
- Zip Code 53726 (Dane County): 35 unique donors, 100 % donor share
Unique Donor Leaderboard – Trump
Below are the top 10 zip codes where Trump received the most support.
- Zip Code 53066 (Washington County): 79 unique donors, 80.6 % donor share
- Zip Code 53217 (Milwaukee County): 89 unique donors, 55.3 % donor share
- Zip Code 54016 (St. Croix County): 70 unique donors, 75.3 % donor share
- Zip Code 53072 (Waukesha County): 70 unique donors, 82.4 % donor share
- Zip Code 53092 (Milwaukee County): 69 unique donors, 69 % donor share
- Zip Code 54313 (Oconto County): 68 unique donors, 80 % donor share
- Zip Code 53045 (Waukesha County): 68 unique donors, 82.9 % donor share
- Zip Code 53029 (Washington County): 63 unique donors, 80.8 % donor share
- Zip Code 54115 (Outagamie County): 62 unique donors, 81.6 % donor share
- Zip Code 54956 (Outagamie County): 60 unique donors, 76.9 % donor share
Methodology
The campaign donations data was retrieved from the FEC covering all individual contributions dated between Jan 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020. For President Donald Trump, the following committees are included: Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. (C00580100), Trump Make America Great Again Committee (C00618371), and Trump Victory (C00618389). For former Vice President Joe Biden, the following committees are included: Biden for President (C00703975), Biden Victory Fund (C00744946), and Biden Action Fund (C00746651). The state, county, and zip code shapefiles were retrieved from the U.S. Census Bureau. In terms of unique donors, we deduped by names, zip codes, and candidates. We adopted 5-digit zip codes for this report as not all candidates collect 9-digit zip codes. People who have changed their names or moved in between donations could artificially inflate these numbers. Unique donor shares are calculated using the aggregated number of unique donors contributed to Trump’s campaign and the aggregated number of unique donors contributed to Biden’s campaign. Past Democratic/Republican candidates are excluded from the calculation.
Frequently Asked Questions about Our Election Studies
1. Why would Trump be leading in a Blue Zip Code?
This is related to the primaries. As we all know, there were as many as 31 Democratic candidates competing for the nomination, and so the support was divided among them. Meanwhile, while the Republican Party had 3 candidates running, all the support gravitated towards Trump, and therefore he alone could receive support from more unique donors than any single Democratic candidate. Now that Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee, we should start seeing some changes.
2. Why should we care about unique donors?
While the dollar amount raised is important for candidates, we believe that it is more crucial to understand how many unique donors each candidate has attracted, as each unique donor potentially means one vote, and by measuring donor counts, it gives us a better idea of how many people support each candidate.
3. How is the party majority calculated?
The party majority is calculated using the aggregated unique donor count of a party and the aggregated unique donor count from Jan 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020. For instance, if Democratic candidates attracted a total of 200 unique donors, and the total number of unique donors within a city is 500, the Democratic share would be 40%. In terms of the color shades, purple areas are whether neither the Democratic candidates combined nor Trump has more than 55% of the donors. Light blue and light red represent zip codes where the party has 55% to 70% of the donors, and blue or red represents a majority of 70% and more.
