2017 was a fruitful year for the U.S. Despite the political climate and three hurricanes, our economy has been growing at a steady pace. Interest rates and jobs are on the rise, and so is minimum wage. The stock market had a phenomenal year, and let us not forget this — after rounds of discussions and debates, the new Tax Bill is finally in effect. However, what do these mean and what impacts do they have on the housing market?
Here are some key takeaways from our 2018 Market Trends:
- Real estate investment activities might cool down as a result of higher interest rates in 2018.
- Renting seems like a better deal with the new Tax Bill. In our example, carrying a mortgage is $3,469 pricier (from a tax-saving perspective) for a senior financial analyst in New York City.
- Wages are finally on the rise. However, since rent growth has been outpacing wage growth, it will take a long time for wages to catch up.Â
- Homeownership is now more burdensome. The housing market will most likely cool down, and more people will delay home purchases and stay renting instead.
- Rent growth will be moderate as more supply hitting the market, but affordable housing will continue to be an issue, as much of the new residential inventory permissioned and constructed tend to be in the luxury range.
1. Interest rates are rising and will continue into 2018.
On December 14th, the Federal Reserve lifted the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 1.25% to 1.5%. This is the fifth raise of the short-term interest rates since the end of 2015, and the Fed plans to have another three hikes in 2018. Long-term interest rates are expected to go up as well in 2018, and yet due to modest inflation, the long-term rates will most likely be outpaced by short-term rates. The yield curve will continue to flatten and come dangerously close to inverted, which is generally considered as a predictor of economic recession.
What is the impact on the housing market?
Higher rates mean mortgages are more expensive. Higher mortgages mean less buying power, and less buying power means less competitive bidding for homes. This could potentially cool down the booming housing market since fewer people would be able to carry mortgages. In addition, higher interest rates mean higher capitalization rates, and higher cap rates mean lower asset valuation. (For those who are unfamiliar, capitalization rate, or cap rate, is a rate of return on a real estate investment property based on the income the property is expected to generate.) Lower asset valuation might offset the optimism among home builders and investors, slowing down construction. However, the change in housing stock does not happen overnight — the supply gets narrower over time. Therefore, we will still see new housing options hitting the market in 2018, and the market might gradually slow down starting the end of 2018.
2. GOP Tax Bill (formerly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) derails the housing market.
As the new Tax Bill was signed by President Donald Trump on December 22nd, many of us wonder if the $15 trillion tax overhaul is truly beneficial for most American households. On one hand, corporations are going to get the largest tax cut in the U.S. history, from 35% to 21%. This can potentially create more jobs, bring back corporate cash overseas, and incentivize business investment, or create more wealth for the already-wealthy investors. On the other hand, the Tax Bill caps the state, local and property tax deduction for income taxes at $10,000. With this provision, homeowners in high-tax states (such as New York, Connecticut, and California) and high-tax cities will need to pay more taxes. In addition, the new Tax Bill lowered the mortgage interest deduction from $1 million to $750,000. Though the $1 million limit will remain for homes that were purchased before December 15, 2017, this change makes it less appealing for people to carry mortgages.
What is the impact on the housing market?
This threatens the booming housing market we are currently in — housing prices will most likely drop as taxes go up, especially in states where property taxes are high, such as Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas. Note that some of these states (New York and Texas) are the leading real estate markets, and therefore the real estate sector as a whole will likely take a big hit with this tax reform. Meanwhile, the new mortgage interest deduction has a tremendous impact on the homeownership both at the national and state levels. Homes under $1 million will see escalated competition, and buying homes and carrying mortgages will certainly be more burdensome for homeowners. In high-tax states, buyers looking to buy might also choose to purchase properties in nearby lower-tax states, in some ways redistributing cash flow.
This, however, might be a great news for renters for several reasons. First, this move equalizes (whether on purpose or accidentally) the playing field between renting and owning — renting seems like a better deal now, since mortgage interest deduction and property taxes are no longer subsidized. In other words, with the new Tax Bill, it is, in fact, cheaper to rent. In Manhattan, prices for condos might drop, coinciding with lower demand (as people might postpone buying now that they can no longer carry mortgages). Secondly, since rental property owners get more deductions than homeowners, there might be a slight increase in rental supply from existing homes in the coming year, which could moderate rent growth. Last but not least, renters who are looking to buy an affordable starter home might find that they have more options now, as the new deduction limit should put downward pressure on home prices, or we should at least see sellers lower their prices in the short term. Nonetheless, this does not mean that it will be easier for low- and middle-income households to buy houses, as high-income households who want to buy can still compete and drive up prices for lower-end properties.
To better understand the impact of this Tax Bill, let us look at an example. A senior financial analyst (for convenience, let’s call him Dave) in New York City makes around $153K with an additional bonus of 24K, according to Glassdoor. Based on Dave’s income and the 40x rule (in some cities, specifically New York City, most landlords require tenants to have a gross annual income that is at least 40x the monthly rent), he can spend $4,425 on rents for a high-end 2BR in New York City, and he does not have to pay property taxes, homeowner insurance, or maintenance. Now, assuming Dave is looking to purchase a condo in Manhattan, and he carries no other loans, he is able to afford $5,310 in total monthly mortgage payments according to the 28/36 rule. (For those who are unfamiliar, the 28/36 rule is widely used for calculating the amount of debt that can be taken on by an individual or household. In other words, your debt-to-income ratio should be at or below 36%). Since Dave has a really great credit score, the bank offers him a 30-year fixed mortgage of $1,182,510 at 3.5% interest rate per annum. So if Dave were to take this loan, the amount of paid interest in year 1 would be $41,026. Based on the old mortgage interest deduction rule and an income tax rate of 28%, Dave can deduct $34,694, and save $9,714 on taxes (the income tax rate here is 28%). However, with the new Tax Bill, Dave can only deduct $26,020, and his tax shield is reduced to $6,245 (income tax rate 24%), let alone increased property taxes and other costs of homeownership.
3. Wages are finally on the rise — but that won’t do much for most people.
We are entering the ninth year of the economic recovery after the Great Recession, and while the U.S. is reaching full employment with the official unemployment rate at a 17-year low of 4.1 %, the wage growth has been slow and flat. The nominal wage growth has been far below target (3.5%-4%), and this is pretty worrisome, as higher wage growth means higher consumer spending, and it is a very important fuel of the economy.
However, we might see some light at the end of the tunnel this coming year. While the official unemployment rate currently sits at 4.1%, the U-6 unemployment rate dropped from 8.9% to 8% in November. Different from the official U-3 unemployment rate, the U-6 rate includes discouraged workers who have quit looking for a job, as well as part-time workers looking for full-time employment. A lower U-6 rate is a good indication of how strong the U.S. economy is (it will most likely continue into 2018), and the tightening labor market will possibly push up wages.
In addition, starting December 31, 2017, 18 states, including New York, California, and Arizona, are increasing the minimum wage for 2018, and the minimum wage hike could potentially stimulate wage growth in 2018. However, one cannot be too optimistic about the minimum wage changes and wage growth, as it will take time for the effect to reach from bottom to top.
What is the impact on the housing market?
You are probably celebrating with your family now if you have been grappling with making money to pay rents in the past few years. However, don’t be so assured about wage growth yet. Housing affordability has been an issue in most major U.S. cities, such as New York, Los Angeles, Miami and the Bay Area, and in addition to housing tightness, a big part of it is related to the fact that rent growth is outpacing wage growth. In New York City, for instance, rents had grown twice as fast as wages from December 2009 to June 2017, and people are moving from expensive neighborhoods to the Bronx and Queens, making these areas less affordable.  While higher wage growth is a very exciting news for most people, it does not necessarily solve the affordable housing issue. Since wages have been so low for such a long time, it will take longer for wage growth to catch up with rent growth. In the coming year, housing affordability will most likely get worse.
4. The housing market will cool down, as well as homebuilder sentiment.
2017 was a good year for the housing market. We started seeing more people switching from renting to buying, and more constructions popping up across the country. Housing starts and building permits both have had some good results in 2017, and they are both crucial economic leading indicators to look at, as an increase in starts and permits usually coincides with increased economic prosperity and possibly a tightening existing home market. Starts showed unusual strength in October 2017, and in November they rose 3.3 % to 1.297 million. Permits were up 5.9% in October, and though they fell 1.4% to 1.298 million in November, the permits showed a 1.4% gain for the single-family category. In addition, the surge in the new home market in September is a booster for home builders’ confidence. The Housing Market Index rose 5 points to 74 in the December report. Â
However, all of these might not last long, thanks to the new Tax Bill. For buyers in expensive housing markets, the new tax law makes homeownership less affordable, and thus, less appealing. For home sellers, owning a home is now more burdensome, and therefore they might lower the price just to sell their properties off, avoiding future expenses. We expect to see a dip in the Housing Market Index, coinciding with lower demand and prices. Numbers of housing starts and building permits will also likely decrease in the first quarter. However, rental prices will most likely go up, and we expect to see more rental options hitting the market in the coming year or two, in answer to the shift in homeownership and renting.
5. Rent growth will be moderate as more supply hitting the market, but affordable housing will continue to be an issue.
The supply of apartments and condos has surged in the past eight years as a result of heightened demand in the aftermath of the Great Recession. It seems that the rental supply is finally catching up with demand, as we started seeing higher rental vacancy rates (national rental vacancy rate in Q3’17 was at 7.5%, the highest since 2015) and more moderate rent growth in major cities. In New York City, for instance, a massive number luxury rental developments opened across the city in 2016 and 2017, forcing landlords to offer concessions to retain and attract tenants. In Manhattan, specifically, rents have largely stabilized, with 57% of neighborhoods showing little or no change from last quarter, and 57% showing at least a 1% drop from last year. Bay Area has also experienced falling rents the past year, and in Seattle, average rents went up only 6.3% from September 2016 to September 2017, the slowest growth since 2012.
We expect to see moderate rent growth continue into 2018, and certain cities, such as Portland and Denver, will experience higher rent growth driven by the booming local economy. However, in 2018 and going forward, housing affordability will continue to be a major issue, as in major metro areas, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York, much of the new residential inventory permissioned and constructed tend to be in the luxury range.
