{"id":3883,"date":"2009-02-18T03:36:43","date_gmt":"2009-02-18T08:36:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.renthop.com\/news\/?p=103"},"modified":"2009-02-18T03:37:16","modified_gmt":"2009-02-18T08:37:16","slug":"bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"Bootstrapping Fun: How Much Will New York City Apartment Rents Fall?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As part of our quest to collect as many <a href=\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/apartments-for-rent\/new-york-ny\/no-fee\">no-fee apartment listings<\/a> as possible across <a href=\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/apartments-for-rent\/new-york-ny\">New York City<\/a>, we end up sifting through a lot of data. We&#8217;ll review information about neighborhoods, buildings, and most interesting of all, changes in rent levels.\u00a0 The question everyone asks us is, how far will New York City apartment rent levels fall?<\/p>\n<p>Of course, the honest truth is no one really knows for sure.\u00a0 However, can we do our best to infer the future, given what we know today?\u00a0 There is, potentially, a trick we can take from the seemingly unrelated field of fixed income relative value trading!\u00a0 For the die-hard Wall Street skeptics out there, you should stop reading now.<\/p>\n<p>And for those still remaining, I present the question we&#8217;d like to explore:\u00a0 Is it possible to bootstrap a Manhattan rent curve using varying tenors of lease offerings?<\/p>\n<h2>Certificate of Deposit Account<\/h2>\n<p>Most of you have probably opened a Certificate of Deposit account with a bank at one point in your life, aka a CD.\u00a0 As you know, CDs come in various maturities.\u00a0 On ING Direct today, you can get a 6-month CD paying 1.25% interest, a 12-month CD paying 1.75% interest, or a 60-month CD paying 2.00% interest.\u00a0 If those are the only 3 available CDs, could we guess today what interest a 6-month CD will pay, SIX MONTHS FROM TODAY?<\/p>\n<p>In fixed income jargon, we might call that the 6-month forward 6-month CD rate.\u00a0 The key trick in bootstrapping is to claim we know this 6-month forward 6-month rate because there is only one interest rate that makes both today&#8217;s 6-month rate and today&#8217;s 12-month rate sensible propositions.<\/p>\n<h3>6-Month Example<\/h3>\n<p>Imagine a few values that could not possibly be the correct 6-month forward 6-month rate.\u00a0 If in six months, the 6-month CD paid only 1.25%, then it would be a bad idea to invest in the 6-month CD when you can invest in the 12-month CD to get 1.75%.\u00a0 Similarly, if the forward rate was as high as 5%, then the 6-month CD is the better investment today.\u00a0 After all, if you open a 12-month CD today for $10,000 at 1.75%, then after waiting six months, you will have a remaining 6 month&#8217;s CD with a balance of $10,087.50 (to be honest, ING just changed their compounding policy, so you&#8217;d get a little bit more).\u00a0 &#8216;<\/p>\n<p>If indeed, the forward rate was 5%, then you&#8217;d end up with $10,175 with the 12 month CD vs. over $10,314.06 (ignoring the fact that ING quotes in APY).\u00a0 You will find the only way to make both investments equal would be if the forward rate was approximately 2.2236%.\u00a0 If the rate were any more, you&#8217;d always invest 6 months at a time.\u00a0 If the rate were any less, you could always invest in the 12 month and then sell it after 6 months.<\/p>\n<h2>Inflation in the Coming Years<\/h2>\n<p>Now, can we apply the same idea for leases of varying lengths, with the huge assumption that the curve can be bootstrapped and that inflation is negligible over the next few years? How will this affect the New York City apartment rent? Clearly it is not possible to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/apartments-for-rent\/new-york-ny\/sublet\">sell your lease<\/a> halfway through to another tenant, but the fact that we&#8217;ve seen landlords give out stellar deals for 2 year leases would suggest landlords know that forward rents are on the decline (and the lease curve is for once quite inverted).\u00a0 Stay tuned as we gather 6M, 1Y, and 2Y lease quotes from a good mix of lease dealers.<\/p>\n<p>We even saw a creative landlord offering to break your lease at month 14 of your 24 month lease, with no penalty. We&#8217;ll leave pricing of that option for another time.<\/p>\n<p><em>Editor&#8217;s Note: We updated this article to enhance readability. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As part of our quest to collect as many no-fee apartment listings as possible across New York City, we end up sifting through a lot of data. We&#8217;ll review information about neighborhoods, buildings, and most interesting of all, changes in rent levels.\u00a0 The question everyone asks us is, how far will New York City apartment [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":19267,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"yes","_lmt_disable":"no","footnotes":""},"categories":[166],"tags":[108],"class_list":{"0":"post-3883","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fun","8":"tag-market-analysis"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.4 (Yoast SEO v23.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bootstrapping Fun: How Much Will New York City Apartment Rents Fall? - Real Estate Topics, Tips, and Guides<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this article, RentHop analyzes how New York City apartment rent could fall and affect the city&#039;s real estate market.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bootstrapping Fun: How Much Will New York City Apartment Rents Fall?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this article, RentHop analyzes how New York City apartment rent could fall and affect the city&#039;s real estate market.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Real Estate Topics, Tips, and Guides\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/renthopapartments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2009-02-18T08:36:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2009-02-18T08:37:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/Bootstrapping-Fun-How-Much-Will-New-York-City-Apartment-Rents-Fall-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1696\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lee Lin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@renthop\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@renthop\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Lee Lin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Lee Lin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/5877a1d4b27a98e84d9840c6aea99af7\"},\"headline\":\"Bootstrapping Fun: How Much Will New York City Apartment Rents Fall?\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-02-18T08:36:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-02-18T08:37:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/\"},\"wordCount\":622,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/02\/Bootstrapping-Fun-How-Much-Will-New-York-City-Apartment-Rents-Fall-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"market analysis\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Fun\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.renthop.com\/blog\/bootstrapping-fun-how-much-will-new-york-city-apartment-rents-fall\/\",\"name\":\"Bootstrapping Fun: How Much Will New York City Apartment Rents Fall? 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